7th April, 2011

The markets opened on a positive note touching the highest point in early trade but sudden selling pressure led the markets into the red by late morning session. The markets managed to recover from the lows of the day by the afternoon session but could not hold on to the gains and slipped lower post which they trade in a narrow range and ended the day on a negative note. Among the Sectoral indices Realty and Consumer Durables were the major gainers while IT and Bankex were among the losers. Among the Sensex stocks Reliance, Hero Honda (2.22%) and NTPC (1.78%) were the major gainers while Wipro (2.93%), Bharti Airtel (1.86%) and Hindalco (1.67%) were amongst the losers. The Sensex lost 75 points or 0.38% to close at 19,612 while Nifty lost 18 points or 0.31% to close at 5,892.

Total traded turnover stood at Rs 1,22,085 cr. In equities FIIs were net buyers (Rs 528 cr) while DIIs were net sellers (Rs 531 cr).On the derivatives side, FIIs were net sellers in Index Futures (Rs 117 cr) Stock Futures (Rs 305 cr) and Stock Options (Rs 15 cr) while they were net buyers in Index Options (Rs 482 cr).

The US markets ended marginally higher led by gains in technology stocks amid thin volumes. The Dow Jones gained 33 points or 0.27% to close at 12,427 while NASDAQ gained 9 points or 0.31% to close at 2,800.

The Asian markets are trading mixed. Nikkei is trading higher by 0.57% while Hang Seng is currently trading lower by 0.14%.

The markets ended on a soft note. FIIs supported by buying in the cash segment. The markets may open on a flat to positive note amidst mixed cues from global peers. Adopt a stock specific approach.

The trend deciding level for the day is 5900, If NIFTY trades above this level then we may witness a further rally up to 5935‐5968‐6000 levels. However, if NIFTY spot trades below 5900 levels then we may see some profit booking to initiate in market, it may correct up to 5860‐5825‐5800.

Cement Sector Update

Situation in South India

Demand: YTD demand in the south has remained weak primarily on account of a significant 15% drop in demand in A.P. due to political turmoil in the state. A.P. used to be a high growth market (~9% of all India demand), growing at >15% CAGR for the last 5 years. For the next 1 year, demand is expected to remain muted due to lack of big ticket infra projects in A.P.

Margins: Operating margins of south based companies have improved from Rs 700-900/ tonne in Q3FY11 to Rs 900-1,000/ tonne at present.

Supply: Current effective producing capacity in the south is ~90mnt (as against a name-plate capacity of ~100mnt). Another 25mnt is likely to be added in next 2-3 years.

Capacity utilization: Current capacity utilization in the region is ~60% based on an effective producing capacity and is expected to remain ~70% in the next couple of years.