Thursday 7 April 2011

Cement Sector Update

Situation in South India

Demand: YTD demand in the south has remained weak primarily on account of a significant 15% drop in demand in A.P. due to political turmoil in the state. A.P. used to be a high growth market (~9% of all India demand), growing at >15% CAGR for the last 5 years. For the next 1 year, demand is expected to remain muted due to lack of big ticket infra projects in A.P.

Margins: Operating margins of south based companies have improved from Rs 700-900/ tonne in Q3FY11 to Rs 900-1,000/ tonne at present.

Supply: Current effective producing capacity in the south is ~90mnt (as against a name-plate capacity of ~100mnt). Another 25mnt is likely to be added in next 2-3 years.

Capacity utilization: Current capacity utilization in the region is ~60% based on an effective producing capacity and is expected to remain ~70% in the next couple of years.

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