Aviation Stocks In Demand

Three aviation stocks rose by 2.95% to 9.93% on BSE on report foreign airlines may be allowed to pick up 49% stake in domestic airlines soon.

Kingfisher Airlines (up 9.93%), SpiceJet (up 9.09%) and Jet Airways (India) (up 2.95%), edged higher.

The BSE Sensex was up 156.36 points or 0.89% at 17,634.51.

Shares of Kingfisher Airlines had underperformed the market over the past one month until 2 April 2012, falling 36.82% compared with the Sensex's 0.90% fall. The scrip had also underperformed the market in past one quarter, sliding 28.27% as against 12.63% rise in the Sensex.

Shares of SpiceJet had outperformed the market over the past one month until 2 April 2012, rising 16.91% compared with the Sensex's 0.90% fall. The scrip had also outperformed the market in past one quarter, gaining 48.01% as against 12.63% rise in the Sensex.

Shares of Jet Airways (India) had outperformed the market over the past one month until 2 April 2012, gaining 12.03% compared with the Sensex's 0.90% fall. The scrip had also outperformed the market in past one quarter, gaining 90.40% as against 12.63% rise in the Sensex.

According to the media report, the Department of Industrial Policy and Promotion (DIPP) will float a Cabinet note for allowing foreign carriers to buy up to 49% stake in local airlines in 8-10 days.

Allowing foreign carriers to invest in domestic carriers will bring much-needed cash for the ailing domestic aviation sector that has been badly hit by high jet fuel price and a weak rupee. At present, while foreign airlines are barred from investing in Indian carriers, other foreign investors are allowed to pick upto 49% stake.

Meanwhile, public sector oil marketing companies have hiked jet fuel price by about 3%. The price of aviation turbine fuel (ATF), or jet fuel, in Delhi was hiked by Rs 1,850.96 per kilolitre (kl), or 2.8%, to Rs 67,800.30 per kl from midnight of 31 March 2012.

ATF typically makes up almost half of an airline's operating cost. PSU OMCs revise jet fuel prices on the 1st and 16th of every month, based on the average international price in the preceding fortnight.

Some media reports suggested that SpiceJet has applied to the Director General of Foreign Trade (DGFT) for permitting the airline to directly import jet fuel, which would enable airlines to cut operating costs by 10-15% and saving on sales tax.

ASTRAL POLY TECHNIK LTD : BUY

ASTRAL POLY TECHNIK LTD.

Revolutionising India’s Plumbing Industry!

Astral Poly Technik Ltd. (Astral) is a pioneer & market leader of CPVC  pipes & fittings in India. Astral is a licensee of Lubrizol, USA, (global specialty chemical behemoth; 70% of global CPVC market) to manufacture & market its world class plumbing products in India. Company has a techno-equity venture with Specialty Process LLC, USA (Global distributor of reengineered polymers) for providing technology required to manufacture CPVC products. 

Investment Rationale:  

Play on domestic housing & infrastructure growth story: Astral with a ~65:35 product mix (CPVC: PVC pipes and fittings & others) derives its demand from over Rs 17,000 Cr (G.I,PVC,CPVC&others) plumbing industry growing over 15% CAGR. According to the Ministry of Urban Development, India has a shortage of ~2.65 cr housing units - market of over Rs 34,450 cr (XIth five year plan).

Huge potential in unexploited replacement market: India has remained a Galvanized pipe dominated market (Rs 7,000 Cr). Consumer preference shifting towards CPVC due to cost advantage (25% cheaper than G.I & ~15% expensive than PVC), non-corrosive nature, resistant to high pressure & temperature etc. Huge replacement demand seen especially from housing & infrastructure sector. 

Astral’s products on high growth trajectory: Deep market penetration and brand recognition helped Astral tap 50%+ domestic market share of CPVC pipe industry (Capex 12x in 5 years signifies huge demand).

Efficient working capital management: Significant improvement - 75 days in FY  08  to  48  days  in  FY  11,  to  improve  further  as  strategically  located  new capacities (H.P & Gujarat) will reduce the lead distance. As a prudent policy Astral has been expanding its capacity in Q4 to avail taxation benefits.

High Entry Barrier: Technology to manufacture CPVC pipes is only with Noveon (Lubrizol) & Astral benefits from over a decade relationship with the global major; thus advantage of getting licenses of Lubrizol’s new products first in India. In addition, a CPVC pipe plant takes 3-4 years (set up & approvals) keeps competition at bay. 

New Products to boost profitability: Astral has an exclusive license to manufacture Lubrizol’s global top-seller Blazemaster FireSprinkler Systems, based on CPVC platform. The company has also picked up 85% stake in Advance Adhesives Pvt. Ltd. to produce Cement Solvent (solution for joining pipes) via technology developed by global Adhesives major, IPS, USA; could be a huge potential for Astral.

Valuations

We  expect  Astral  to  grow  at  37%  CAGR  for  next  2  years  &  maintain  itsleadership in CPVC pipes & fittings, moreover we feel the company is undervalued & deserves better valuations for key aspects : a) Robust business model  – market penetration & branding strategy; new facility being onequarter old only - 36% (17,565 MT) of total capacity (48,432 MT)   b) Quality return ratio profile  – ROCE>26% & ROE>25%,)  c) High entry barriers -  Raw material source, project time, technology. We have valued Astral at 9x FY13E EPS and arrived at a target price of  Rs 244 (potential upside 26%) with a horizon of 12-15 months.

South Indian Bank : BUY

Strong Business; Asset Quality Comforting

South Indian Bank’s (SIB) Q4FY11 PAT grew 112% YoY to Rs 818 mn, above our estimates, led by higher NII and lower-thanestimated provision expenses. Core income rose 181% YoY, which appears optically large because of higher interest expenses booked in 4QFY10 (due to a system error wherein SIB had to absorb full year impact of cost of a special deposit scheme). Margins impressed with ~35 bps QoQ improvement backed by strong low-cost deposit franchise. Asset quality improved with 9% QoQ decline in gross NPAs and 19% QoQ decline in net NPAs. Coverage ratio has increased to 74% (from 71% in Dec-10).

Key highlights

• Loan growth (up 29% YoY) was led by SME and Agri advances which increased 41% and 44% resp. Overall lowcost deposits (incl. NRI deposits) recorded robust 45% YoY growth and now stand at 34% of overall deposits (vs. ~30% in Mar-10).
• Yield on advances rose by 21 bps QoQ to 10.9% while cost of funds increased by 17 bps QoQ to 6.6%.
• Staff cost rose 129% YoY to Rs 758 mn as it includes Rs 251 mn for pension (2nd option) towards retired staff and Rs 270 mn for 1/5th pension (2nd option) towards existing staff.

Maintain BUY with TP of Rs 30

SIB’s overall biz momentum was maintained with advances & deposits growing in tandem at ~29% YoY each, along with improvement in asset quality. As expected, margins were well supported by adequate CASA and low-cost NRI deposits. SIB plans to start gold loan NBFC and to raise capital of Rs ~10 bn to fund future growth. At CMP of Rs 22, the stock is trading at 1.2x FY12E ABV of Rs 18 and 1.1x FY13E ABV of Rs 21. We have a BUY rating on the stock with a TP of Rs 30 (10x FY12E EPS and 1.7x FY12E ABV) – upside of 30% from CMP.

5th May, 2011

The markets opened on a weak note and though negative continued to trade sideways for most of the session. The markets temporarily edged up into the positive territory but could not sustain the gains and ended the day with marginal losses. Among the Sectoral indices Auto & IT ended in the red while Oil & Gas ended with gains of more than 1%. Among the Sensex stocks ONGC (4.78%) HDFC Bank (1.35%) & SBI (1.33%) were amongst the gainers while Bajaj Auto (4.82%), Hero Honda (3.63%) and HDFC (2.89%) were among the losers. The Sensex lost 65 points or 0.35% to close at 18,469 while Nifty lost 28 points or 0.50% to close at 5,537.

Total traded turnover stood at Rs 1,34,769 cr. In equities FIIs were net sellers of (Rs 992 cr) while DIIs were net buyers (Rs 914 cr). On the derivatives side, FIIs were net sellers in Index Futures (Rs 611 cr), Stock Futures (Rs 172 cr) while they were net buyers in Index Options (Rs 520 cr) and Stock Options (Rs 13 cr).

The US markets ended lower led by correction in energy and Industrial stocks and investors remained cautious on weak economic data. The Dow Jones lost 84 points or 0.66% to close at 12,724 while NASDAQ dropped 13 points or 0.47% to close at 2,828.

The Asian markets are trading marginally lower. Hang Seng is trading lower by 0.12% while Nikkei is shut for trading today.

The markets closed lower for the eighth consecutive session. FIIs continued to sell while DIIs supported by buying in the cash segment. The markets may open on a soft note tracking weak global cues. Maintain a stock specific approach.

The trend deciding level for the day is 5540,If NIFTY trades above this level then we may witness a further rally up to 5570‐5615‐5640 levels. However, if NIFTY spot trades below 5540 levels then we may see some profit booking to initiate in market, it may correct up to 5500‐ 5468‐5445.

Indian Metals & Ferro Alloys : HOLD

Q4FY11: Dismal set of numbers

IMFA posted a disappointing Q4FY11 results which were way below our expectations due to increase in Raw material cost mainly the increase in procurement of coal from e-auction/imports. IMFA posted a sales of Rs 289 Cr (Up by 68% (YoY)), an EBIDTA of Rs 60 Cr (YoY growth by 31%) and PAT of Rs 24 Cr (growth of 28% (YoY)). The EBIDTA margins corrected by 588 bps on annual basis.  

Charge Chrome Segment:  In this quarter, IMFA produced ~51500 tn (38435 tn for Q4FY10) of Charge chrome and sold ~51000 tn (35744 tn for Q4FY10). Realizations for the Charge chrome corrected by ~5% on sequential basis. Going forward, the realizations are expected to firm up as the S African Ferro Chrome producers (who are price setters in the Fe Cr industry) are expected to raise the price to pass on the incremental cost. It must be remembered that ESKOM- the public utility company in SA has a mandate to raise the power prices by 25% (approx.) every year starting CY2010 till CY2012. The Chinese spot prices are seen strengthening to 110 USc/lb against 95 USc/lb last year.

Power:  IMFA generated 20.5 Cr power units and consumed them captively. IMFA is adding up 30 MW of dual fired power plant which will be using captive flue gases and coal for generating power. The new power plant (30 MW) was expected to be commissioned by Q3FY11, but has been delayed further and is expected to be operational by Q1FY12. In addition, the company is erecting a 120 MW coal fired merchant power plant at a capex of Rs 595 Cr which is expectedto be commissioned by FY13.

Valuations & Outlook

Robust demand and expected rise in price of S African Fe Cr is expected to keep the European benchmark prices at current levels and upward bias in the Chinese spot prices. IMFA, which supplies to international players like POSCO and Glencore has its sales pegged to the benchmark prices but also linked to spot. Although, the realizations are expected to strengthen, the sharp rise in the cost of production (CoP) due to rise in coke and domestic coal prices is expected to affect the margins. We had already priced  in  rise  in  coke price but the further rise in domestic coal cost (due to drop in availability of linkage coal) has led to increase in power cost which for the last quarter has inflated to Rs 4.19/unit as against the  historical cost of generation of Rs 2.3/unit. IMFA is struggling to get supply of linkage coal as MCL has discontinued the coal supply citing the tapering linkage policy while the coal block alloted is yet to be operationalised and as per management, is expected to yield coal not before Q4FY12E.Despite the robust Fe Cr prices expected in the coming quarters, IMFA would not be in position to defend its margins due to inflating power bill. We have hence further toned down our topline and bottomline estimates by 4% and 37% respectively for FY12. 

Taking into account these developments, we recommend a Hold with reduced price target of Rs 589 (which is drop of 28% from our earlier target of Rs 822).